U.S. stock futures flat as Brent stays above $100 before earnings

what happened

Reuters reports that U.S. stock futures were nearly flat on Monday as investors tracked oil and geopolitical developments before bank earnings and inflation figures due this week. Those releases could affect expectations for the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate path. Oil prices moved up and down after President Donald Trump said Ukraine and Russia had agreed to stop attacking one another’s energy infrastructure following a U.S. diesel-supply arrangement with Moscow. The terms were still unclear, and the proposal faced resistance in Washington.

Brent crude remained above $100 a barrel as the Middle East conflict continued after deadly weekend strikes on Riyadh’s international airport. “Any hope that Trump’s deal with Putin might help bring down prices has been negated by the flare-up in the Houthi conflict,” said Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG. He added that earnings would be a major market driver this week, but oil developments were likely to remain a source of pressure on sentiment.

The earnings season opens on Tuesday, with Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase among the first major U.S. banks scheduled to report. LSEG IBES data indicate that S&P 500 earnings are expected to increase 30.6% in the third quarter. At 05:36 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis gained 42 points, or 0.08%, S&P 500 E-minis rose 9.75 points, or 0.12%, while Nasdaq 100 E-minis slipped 14.75 points, or 0.05%.

The three main indexes all finished higher last week, supported by optimism about an AI-led third-quarter earnings season and expectations that the Fed could avoid raising rates in the near term. Those factors offset sharp moves in oil and Treasury markets. Treasury yields reached 24-year highs earlier this month as higher energy costs raised concerns that inflation could remain persistent, potentially keeping policymakers hawkish and weighing on equity valuations. The U.S. Treasury market is closed for Columbus Day.

Investors will also monitor U.S. consumer and producer price reports and retail-sales data due this week. Higher energy costs are expected to lift headline CPI by 0.6% month on month and 3.7% year on year, while core inflation is forecast to rise 0.2% monthly and 2.5% annually. CME’s FedWatch tool shows markets assigning only a 19% probability to a rate increase this month. In premarket trading, IREN shares rose 5.4% after The Information reported that Anthropic had signed a multi-year cloud deal with the data-center company.

why it matters

Oil prices are central to the market outlook because they shape inflation expectations and the Fed’s rate debate, while the week’s bank results will test whether earnings can offset that pressure on equities.

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