U.S. inflation and production data set to lead the week

what happened

Newsmetry API reports median forecasts compiled by The Wall Street Journal for the remaining U.S. economic releases this week. Tuesday’s schedule includes the September Small Business Survey at 98.0 versus 98.7 previously, existing home sales at 3.95M versus 3.98M, and a monthly change of -0.8% versus -2.0%. The September monthly federal budget is expected at -$29.0B, compared with +$198B* previously.

On Wednesday at 0830, the September Consumer Price Index is forecast at +0.6% month over month versus +0.4% previously and +3.6% year over year versus +3.4%. The measure excluding food and energy is seen at +0.2% month over month versus +0.3% and +2.5% year over year versus +2.4%.

Thursday brings jobless claims for Oct 10, expected at 200K versus 197K, and the September Producer Price Index at +0.6% month over month versus +0.4% and +5.5% year over year versus +5.4%. PPI excluding food and energy is forecast at +0.3% versus +0.2%, while the measure excluding food, energy and trade is expected at +0.3% versus +0.3%. Retail sales are projected at +0.4% versus +1.2%, and +0.5% versus +1.4% excluding autos. The NY Empire State Fed Manufacturing Survey is seen at 10.3 versus 7.6, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey at 32.0 versus 37.8, and business inventories at +0.4% versus +0.8%.

Friday’s releases include September import prices at +0.8% versus +0.7%, industrial production at +0.4% versus +0.0%, and capacity utilization at 76.5% versus 76.3%. Figures in parentheses show the number of economists surveyed. *September 2025 reading; the release timing may change. Write to Donna Huneke at dataweekahead@wsj.com.

why it matters

The calendar covers inflation, consumption, labor and production. Differences from The Wall Street Journal consensus could affect expectations for Federal Reserve policy, Treasury yields and the dollar.

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