U.S. Fiscal Risks May Keep Long-Term Treasury Yields Elevated
Persistent U.S. fiscal concerns may keep long-term Treasury yields near multidecade highs as markets await September CPI and reassess Fed expectations.
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what happened
Long-term U.S. Treasury yields may stay near multidecade highs as concerns about the country’s fiscal outlook persist. Mahmoud Mashal, senior market strategist at VT Markets Dubai, said this in a note, Dow Jones Newswires reported.
Mashal said sustained inflation could raise yields on shorter-dated securities. A softer reading, however, could push expectations for tighter policy further into the future and test the dollar’s recent gains. He made the comments ahead of Wednesday’s release of the September CPI report.
“Any renewed rise in oil prices could revive inflation concerns and place upward pressure on Treasury yields,” Mashal said. The U.S. Treasury market is closed Monday for Columbus Day. Money markets, according to LSEG, assign an 18% probability to a Federal Reserve rate hike later this month.
why it matters
Inflation, oil prices and U.S. fiscal concerns remain important drivers for Treasury yields and the dollar. The September CPI report may affect expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next policy steps.
instruments
sources
- Concerns Over U.S. Fiscal Outlook Could Keep Long-End Treasury Yields Elevated — Market Talk — Dow Jones Newswires, 12 October 2026 at 10:21 UTC
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