U.S. economic surprise index turns negative as inflation persists

what happened

Seeking Alpha reports that a series of U.S. economic releases came in below forecasts, pushing the Bloomberg U.S. Economic Surprise Index into negative territory. The pattern has heightened concerns that persistent price inflation is beginning to weigh on consumer spending. The report refers to two recent releases that missed analysts’ expectations, but their names are not specified in the original text.

Lisa Abramowicz, co-host of Bloomberg Surveillance, said the gauge stood at -0.034 on Monday. That compares with a year-to-date high of 0.446 reached in May. In a social media post, Abramowicz wrote that the development was raising concerns consumers would soon run out of capacity to maintain spending while prices continued to rise.

Seeking Alpha says its content is provided for informational purposes only. It also states that the publication does not provide personal investment advice and is not a licensed securities dealer, broker, U.S. investment adviser or investment bank.

why it matters

The move below zero signals that incoming data are increasingly underperforming market expectations. Alongside persistent inflation, that may shape views on consumer demand and expectations for U.S. monetary policy.

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