Three Signals Point to a Possible Bitcoin Bottom Ahead of U.S. Midterms

what happened

Benzinga reports that Bitcoin is showing early signs of a possible October bottom as on-chain demand improves and the U.S. midterm elections approach. CryptoQuant data showed that, as of Oct. 12, markets assigned roughly an 18% chance of a Fed rate hike in October, while Brent crude had fallen from nearly $110 to around $103. Crypto conditions have nevertheless improved despite elevated Treasury yields and slowing inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs.

Three indicators support the possibility of a bottom: Bitcoin balances on exchanges remain relatively low, apparent demand has recovered from deeply negative levels, and large holders have raised their combined holdings to almost 3 million BTC. CryptoQuant cautioned that “Uptober” does not imply uninterrupted gains, with a correction potentially creating the foundation for another rally.

Trader KillaXBT outlined two scenarios before the U.S. midterm elections on Nov. 3. His preferred path has Bitcoin rallying into the vote, clearing previous highs and forcing short sellers to cover, followed by a decline. Historically, Bitcoin posted bearish price action within one to two months after three of the past four U.S. midterm elections. KillaXBT expects a similar correction this year but believes Bitcoin would form a higher low rather than a new bear-market bottom. If Bitcoin falls before the elections, he sees a post-election recovery toward $95,000. Nearly $2 billion in long positions were recently liquidated, which the trader said could help set up a short squeeze before another correction surprises bullish traders.

why it matters

The report presents a mixed market signal: improving on-chain metrics and whale accumulation support Bitcoin, while macroeconomic pressure, election-related uncertainty and the historical post-election pattern point to potentially elevated volatility.

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