Three factors that will shape the 2026 US midterm vote

what happened

According to Reuters, the 2026 US midterm elections will decide whether Republicans keep command of Congress or Democrats gain the ability to push back against the Trump administration. Republicans currently hold slim majorities in both the House and the Senate, and Democrats would have to flip a net total of four seats to seize control of either chamber.

Trump's approval has sunk to a record-low 31% in a Reuters/Ipsos poll, yet he is still campaigning heavily before the vote. Cost of living is voters' top concern: gasoline averages $4.28 a gallon, $1.20 above a year earlier according to AAA, and diesel has climbed $2.70 to $6.32. Immigration remains contentious after fatal incidents involving federal agents, while Homeland Security reports a 95% drop in southwest border apprehensions.

Reuters also notes that artificial intelligence, data centers, crypto and abortion could sway individual races.

why it matters

For markets, the key question is whether the balance of power in Congress shifts, since that would shape the tax, spending and regulatory agenda, including policy on crypto and data centers. Investors typically watch midterms for signals on fiscal policy, though the immediate effect on prices is usually limited and depends on the final outcome.

market impact

US stocks and the dollar: a possible shift in Congress would change expectations for tax and regulatory policy

instruments