Star oil trader Yaoyao Liu set to exit Vitol after costly wrong-way bet

what happened

According to TradingView, which cites people familiar with the matter, Yaoyao Liu, one of the most prominent oil traders, is expected to depart Vitol by the end of the year. One of the sources linked the decision to family reasons. Earlier this year his team suffered losses of several hundred million dollars from wrong-way positions on diesel and crude prices, as the Wall Street Journal reported in April.

Vitol, a privately held company, has not disclosed financial results for the current year. In April, one source said the firm remained up for the year despite Liu's trades. In 2020, according to the same sources, he generated billions of dollars for the company by betting that the pandemic's impact on oil markets would be short-lived. Before joining Vitol in 2012, Liu worked at Goldman Sachs, and he later led a group of analysts and traders in Dubai, London and Houston.

The troubled positions were taken at the start of the war with Iran, when the team bet that diesel would strengthen against jet fuel and that Dubai crude would weaken against Brent. When Iran shut the Strait of Hormuz, price moves turned against those trades. According to the sources, Liu has not been actively trading since the summer.

why it matters

Vitol handles about 8 million barrels of crude and oil products a day, and its 2025 revenue reached $343 billion, more than ExxonMobil. Rivals Trafigura, BP and TotalEnergies have profited from disruptions tied to the Iran war, so this episode looks like an isolated setback rather than a signal for the wider oil market.

market impact

Oil trading desks: shows the risks of spread bets on Brent, Dubai and diesel, with little direct effect on prices

tags

instruments