SpaceX ahead of Q3 earnings: options price in a 7.8% move

what happened

Gurufocus reports that SpaceX will publish third-quarter figures on October 20, and investors are preparing for a sizable share move. Analysts polled expect earnings of $0.14 per share on about $12.9 billion of revenue. Options traders price in a 7.8% swing either way, which from the October 16 close of $146.03 points to a range of roughly $134.64 to $157.42.

The last report left a clear mark: in the second quarter the stock dropped 13.61% in a single session. The company posted a $541 million net loss that quarter, while capital spending reached $18.4 billion, of which $15.8 billion went to AI computing systems. The central question now is whether those outlays begin to generate revenue.

Analyst expectations are climbing. Evercore's Kutgun Maral lifted his target to $270 from $230 and kept a Buy rating, expecting revenue above consensus and a run rate of $104 billion by year-end. Pivotal Research's Jeffrey Wlodarczak raised his target to $230 from $220, forecasting $13.2 billion in revenue and $0.21 in EPS.

why it matters

The core tension is spending against income. Options already imply a large move, while rising price targets rest on hopes for Starlink growth and AI capacity. Investors will focus on revenue relative to roughly $13 billion, progress toward profitability, capex, computing capacity, Starlink Mobile adoption and movement toward the $100 billion-plus run-rate goal. A heavy-spending quarter without operating leverage could revive questions about future funding needs.

market impact

SpaceX stock: revenue versus capex expectations set the direction for the shares, with AI spending in focus

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