Shopify Could Benefit From AI Agents, but the Impact May Take Time

what happened

Barron's reports that Shopify could become a major long-term beneficiary of artificial-intelligence agents, a possibility investors have begun to price in. The company’s shares rose 3.4% to $176.69 on Monday and are up nearly 11% this year, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

Shopify stock initially fell nearly 8% after Meta Platforms launched Muse on Sept. 8, as investors feared AI shopping agents could undermine the company’s core business. Since then, several Wall Street analysts have argued that Shopify could serve as a leading checkout engine for AI platforms.

Deutsche Bank’s Bhavin Shah reiterated a Buy rating and a $185 price target. He said Shopify remains in an “advantaged position” to benefit from Muse and other AI agents over time. Shop Pay and Muse can help shoppers find independent sellers and complete purchases directly in chat, he wrote. However, agentic commerce has so far had a “negligible” effect on merchant revenue, meaning the near-term financial payoff may disappoint investors.

Shah expects strong third-quarter results when Shopify reports on Nov. 3. He sees gross merchandise volume and revenue modestly exceeding Wall Street estimates, supported by enterprise migrations and European demand, along with slightly better-than-expected fourth-quarter guidance. J.P. Morgan analyst Smilek previously cited Shopify’s 20 years of proprietary merchant data, infrastructure and Sidekick AI assistant. CEO Tobi Lutke said Shopify had joined with Muse to “enable agentic checkout with Shop Pay on all Shopify stores.” FactSet’s poll of 57 analysts shows 75% with Buy ratings and 23% with Hold ratings. Shopify has received 19 price-target increases since Muse launched.

why it matters

The market is weighing Shopify’s long-term role in AI-driven commerce against limited current monetization: the stock is up 33% since Muse launched, while merchant-revenue effects remain minimal.

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