Seeking Alpha analysts estimate what Tesla could be worth in a SpaceX merger
Seeking Alpha analysts give differing estimates of Tesla's value in a possible merger with SpaceX, with outcomes depending on ownership split and terms.
- published on Newsmetry
- original source published
the public page opens no earlier than 15 minutes after we detect the story. approved stories may reach the api sooner. connect the api →
what happened
Elon Musk said on Tuesday that Tesla and SpaceX had set up committees to explore a possible merger. Seeking Alpha asked several of its analysts how much Tesla could be worth in such a deal.
Danil Sereda assumes Tesla shareholders would hold about 50% of a combined company valued at roughly $3.5 trillion. On that basis he gets a fair value of $443 per share, about 20% above the pre-market price on Thursday, October 22. Victor Dergunov thinks SpaceX would pay at least $420 to $500 per share, and $550 or more if the deal slips to mid-2027 and monetary policy eases.
Carla Magliocco believes news of a merger would lift Tesla shares, though the outcome depends on the terms. She points to 1.74 million active FSD subscribers, up 67% year over year, and to higher profitability in SpaceX's AI segment.
why it matters
For markets, the key question is the deal terms, including Tesla's ownership share and how SpaceX is valued. The committees have only been formed, analyst estimates differ widely, and the timeline could stretch if rates stay high.
market impact
Tesla and SpaceX shares: deal terms will set Tesla's valuation and how the stock reacts to the news
tags
instruments
sources
- SA Asks: How much could Tesla be worth in a merger deal? — Seeking Alpha, 24 October 2026 at 19:40 UTC
prepared by the newsmetry newsroom with ai assistance from the sources listed below. not investment advice.
the public page opens no earlier than 15 minutes after we detect the story. approved stories may reach the api sooner.
get stories in real time ↗