macro

Safe-haven flows and rising oil test the rupee's recent recovery

The rupee may face pressure on Friday as investors seek safety and oil climbs after Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, Reuters reports.

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what happened

The recent recovery of the Indian rupee is likely to face headwinds on Friday, Reuters reports. Two forces are at work: a flight to safety that is weighing on risk-sensitive currencies, and higher oil prices that may push importers to hedge more.

According to traders, the rupee is expected to open at 94.84–94.88 per dollar, after settling at 94.8175 on Thursday. The currency had climbed to near 94.30 the previous session before reversing, a move that surprised bankers. The 10-year US Treasury yield fell back below 5% despite higher crude. Brent rose to just under $115 a barrel after Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, the top oil exporter.

ING Bank said in a note that the market may be shifting regimes: the long end of the curve increasingly reflects concern about growth.

why it matters

The key point for markets is a change in sentiment. Expensive energy no longer automatically means higher rates, and investors are moving into defensive assets. For the rupee, this raises its sensitivity to oil prices and to risk appetite.

market impact

Rupee and risk currencies: pressure from safe-haven flows and costlier oil

tags

instruments

USD/INRBrentUS TreasuriesUSD/JPY

sources

  1. Flight to safety, rising oil put rupee’s recovery to the test — Reuters, 23 October 2026 at 02:59 UTC

prepared by the newsmetry newsroom with ai assistance from the sources listed below. not investment advice.

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