S&P 500 bull market reaches its four-year milestone

what happened

Seeking Alpha reports that the current S&P 500 bull market, which started in October 2022, reached its four-year anniversary in mid-October 2026. Its cumulative return stood at 117.1% through early October, ranking among the stronger results seen at the same point in multi-year advances.

Five of the six previous S&P 500 bull markets that lasted at least four years moved higher during their fifth year. Those fifth-year returns averaged 13.5%, ranging from 6.8% to 36.6%. The only exception was the advance that began in October 1957, which fell 19.2% in its fifth year before coming to an end.

Data compiled by Roth Capital Partners through October 8, 2026, from S&P 500 daily closes show a median duration of 5.7 years for those longer cycles. The median gain through year four was 72.2%, while the median cumulative return reached 177.2%. Average figures were 7.3 years, 89.1% and 253.3%, respectively. The current cycle is ahead of both historical median and average returns at the four-year stage, although past performance does not guarantee future results.

why it matters

Historical experience suggests that bull markets reaching this milestone have more often extended their gains into a fifth year, but outcomes have varied widely. The figures therefore provide a comparison with earlier cycles rather than a forecast for the S&P 500.

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