Oil futures climb a second day as Mideast tensions stay elevated

what happened

According to OPIS, crude and refined product futures posted solid gains for a second straight session on Friday. The December West Texas Intermediate contract was up $2.81 at 11:15 a.m. ET, trading at $102.28 a barrel, a rise of 2.8%. December Brent gained $3.03 to $116.20 a barrel. Among products, RBOB gasoline led, with the November contract up 4.15 cents to $3.2180 a gallon, while ULSD rose by less than 0.5%.

The move reflects rising tension in the Persian Gulf. The U.S. and Israel are reportedly preparing to resume strikes on Iran, and Iranian leaders have threatened to retaliate by hitting civilian targets in the region. Zaheer Anwari, founder of The Revacy Fund, said in a Friday analysis that the physical market looks more balanced than the headlines suggest, as Gulf oil exports have recovered significantly and emergency stock releases have eased immediate supply fears. He added that the risk remains: shipping through the region is still disrupted, freight and insurance costs are elevated, and any new attack on energy infrastructure could quickly tighten supply again.

why it matters

Oil remains the main channel through which geopolitical risk reaches markets. Any change in shipping routes through the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz matters for energy companies and for currencies of commodity exporters, while fuel prices feed into inflation expectations.

market impact

Oil: risk of supply disruption from the Persian Gulf puts upward pressure on Brent and WTI.

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