Oil Climbs Above $100 as Ukrainian Strikes on Refineries Add to Hormuz Worries

what happened

Oil prices climbed on Friday after Ukraine resumed strikes on Russian refineries, which revived worries about lasting supply disruptions in the Middle East and the uncertain status of tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. According to TradingView, citing The Wall Street Journal, December Brent settled 3.7% higher at $109.86 a barrel, while December WTI added 2.6% to $99.02. The front-month November WTI contract rose 3.5% to $101.41, its first close above $100 in a month.

The International Energy Agency said on Thursday that its members would speed up the release of roughly 100 million barrels of emergency stocks that had already been pledged, including more than 20 million barrels of diesel. About 330 million barrels have been released so far, and the total is now expected to exceed the 400 million barrels agreed in March. Meanwhile, a pair of cargo vessels reportedly went down close to Hormuz after being attacked, and two container ships were hit by unidentified projectiles, according to UK Maritime Trade Operations.

why it matters

Analysts at ING and Julius Baer have questioned whether prices above $100 are justified by fundamentals, since Middle East exports have largely recovered and global inventories remain comfortable. Insurance is also getting more expensive: war-risk premiums can add several million dollars per shipment moving oil out of the region, according to MSIG USA. Markets will watch whether a U.S.-Iran agreement can reduce the geopolitical premium.

market impact

Brent, WTI: риски для поставок и страховки танкеров поддерживают цены на нефть

tags

instruments