November on Indian Markets: What 25 Years of Data Show
Analysts at SAMCO and SBI Securities review Nifty seasonality: November and December have historically been strong, but outflows and external risks remain.
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what happened
Indian equities are entering November after a prolonged stretch of weakness, with foreign investors pulling money out, crude oil still elevated and the rupee under pressure. According to Moody's, which cites SAMCO Research calculations based on NSE data, November and December were the strongest months for the Nifty 50 from 2001 to 2025, with average returns of 2.5% and 2.6% respectively.
Sudeep Shah of SBI Securities noted that Bank Nifty shows even steadier seasonality, while midcap and smallcap indices have also tended to rise in November. Financial services, IT and public sector banks have historically outperformed, whereas oil and gas, metals and autos have more often lagged.
Jahol Prajapati, an equity research analyst at SAMCO Securities, cautioned that seasonality alone is not enough. He said a sustained recovery would require better corporate earnings, steadier global cues and a return of foreign investor participation.
why it matters
Seasonal statistics help gauge sentiment but do not guarantee index moves. Market participants will watch foreign fund flows, oil prices and the rupee, as well as festive demand around Diwali, which falls on 8 November this year.
instruments
sources
- Nifty: Will November 2026 bring more returns or disappoint? What does history suggest? What 25 yrs of market data reveal — Moody's, 1 November 2026 at 10:12 UTC
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