Nomura lifts South Korea's 3Q GDP growth forecast to 4.0% year on year
Nomura expects South Korea's economy grew faster than previously forecast in July-September, at 1.6% on quarter and 4.0% on year. Full-year 2026 forecast raised to 3.6%.
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what happened
Nomura economist Jeong Woo Park expects South Korea's GDP to have grown 1.6% from the previous quarter and 4.0% from a year earlier in the July-September period. His earlier forecasts were 0.1% and 2.4%, respectively, so the new estimate is well above them.
Park says strong exports of AI-related products, including chips and computers, contributed substantially to growth. The global AI investment cycle also supported domestic facilities investment, particularly in semiconductors. He raised his full-year 2026 growth forecast to 3.6% from 3.2%.
According to Park, these gains continue to offset weak household consumption, which remains the main drag on the economy.
why it matters
Strong chip exports typically support the KOSPI and shares of major chipmakers, and can also influence the won. Weak household spending remains a risk to domestic growth, so the outlook depends heavily on the export sector.
market impact
South Korea: strong chip exports support the KOSPI and the won
tags
instruments
sources
- Nomura Raises Its Korea 3Q GDP Growth Forecast to 4.0% on Year — Market Talk, 21 October 2026 at 01:05 UTC
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