Nifty 50: oil and bond yields renew pressure ahead of expiry

what happened

According to CNBC TV18, optimism about a sustained recovery in Indian equities faded quickly on Monday. Support for the bulls came from Reserve Bank of India measures aimed at shoring up the currency, followed by a stronger rupee against the US Dollar. However, the announced cash-reserve measures weighed on banking shares, while PSU Banks were also hurt by rising bond yields. India’s 10-year bond yield has reached 7.4%.

India’s September inflation was broadly in line with expectations and remained within the RBI range, giving the Monetary Policy Committee temporary relief. Oil prices, meanwhile, reversed their early decline and returned above $105 a barrel. Amundi’s research arm said that a resolution of the Iran war and a drop in crude prices could represent a “turning point” for the market. The Nifty 50 has fallen over 14% so far this year despite reaching new highs at the start of the year.

Tuesday will bring the weekly options expiry for Nifty 50 contracts. The index managed to hold 22,300 with help from the final-minute CAS move, making a break below that level potentially important amid heavy put writing at the 22,400 strike. A recovery toward 22,500–22,550 could meet supply, while Monday’s high of 22,651 is around 300 points away. Traders will also assess earnings from HCLTech, ICICI Prudential AMC and RBL Bank, while ICICI Prudential Life, SS Retail, Hero Motors, Transformers & Rectifiers and Tata Elxsi are due to report on Tuesday.

Rupak De of LKP Securities identifies support at 22,300, followed by 22,100 and lower levels, with resistance at 22,420 and 22,650. Sudeep Shah of SBI Securities highlights 22,230–22,200 as a critical support zone; a decisive break could take the index toward 22,050, while 22,500–22,530 is the immediate hurdle. Nifty Bank remains relatively stronger despite contributing to Monday’s Nifty decline, with support at 54,700–54,500 and resistance at 55,100–55,500.

why it matters

For Indian equities, crude above $105 and a 7.4% 10-year bond yield remain the main macro constraints. Technical levels on the Nifty 50 and Nifty Bank will be closely watched as options expire and companies release earnings.

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