Motilal Oswal upgrades BSE to Buy with a 4000 rupee target

what happened

Analysts at Motilal Oswal, whose report was published on TradingView, upgraded BSE shares to Buy and set a target price of 4000 rupees. They said notional F&O turnover on the exchange rose 85% in October 2026 compared with August, when turnover fell 34% month on month after the CAS reset. The analysts see the partial CAS reversal, effective 7 December 2026, as an additional regulatory driver for growth.

The brokerage expects FY27 ADTO of 216 trillion rupees, up 16% year on year, and has raised its revenue and profit forecasts for FY27 and FY28. BSE holds more than 30% of premium turnover, and its premium-to-notional ratio has climbed to about 14 basis points from 6 to 7 basis points in 2023-24, compared with 20 basis points or more at NSE.

The target is based on 40x FY28E P/E. The analysts argue that a sustained volume recovery and a further rise in the premium-to-notional ratio could add roughly 20% to FY28E profit.

why it matters

For the market, this is a reminder that exchange earnings depend heavily on derivatives volumes and regulatory decisions, and swings in volatility quickly show up in BSE and NSE turnover. These are one brokerage's estimates, not a recommendation to act.

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