Morgan Stanley names eBay a top pick as Live Commerce gains momentum

what happened

eBay shares rose 3.8% in Monday morning trading after Morgan Stanley named the company one of its top picks. Analyst Nathan Feather said the acceleration in gross merchandise volume (GMV) growth had surprised even the most bullish investors, while the market had struggled to determine what was driving it.

Seeking Alpha reported that Morgan Stanley views the $27B live-selling market as the missing piece, estimating that it accounts for more than 40% of eBay’s growth. The company’s Live Commerce business has begun to gain traction in the U.S. but remains in its early stages. Morgan Stanley expects the segment to deliver an approximately 22% CAGR through 2030 and contribute about 4 percentage points to annual GMV growth.

Feather said GMV growth should prove more durable than the market expects, while margin expectations appear to have bottomed. Morgan Stanley raised its earnings estimates for eBay and lifted the stock’s price target to $132. Feather compared the platform with the NYSE for used goods, saying live auctions bring in short-term resellers and increase transaction velocity.

why it matters

The report highlights Live Commerce as a potential additional growth engine for eBay, with implications for market expectations around GMV, earnings and margins.

instruments