Moderna shares slump as investors await proof the cancer vaccine works beyond melanoma

what happened

According to WSJ, a trial of Moderna's personalized mRNA cancer vaccine in melanoma showed a 42% reduction in the risk of recurrence or death when added to Merck's Keytruda, compared with Keytruda alone. The result cleared the roughly 40% level investors had set and should be enough for approval, but the stock had already priced in far more, and it fell about 20% through Friday.

The WSJ columnist argues that Moderna's market value, up about $55 billion since August, implies the vaccine will work across several tumor types and rival Keytruda in size. Open questions include whether other cancers respond, and whether earlier use of Keytruda before surgery could erode the vaccine's main market before Keytruda's patent expires in 2028.

why it matters

Next catalysts for Moderna include kidney cancer data expected in a few months and bladder cancer trial results that could come in 2027. Per WSJ, the stock's direction will depend more on results in other cancers than on melanoma alone.

market impact

Moderna and Merck: share price sensitive to new data in other cancer types

tags

instruments