Investors Pull Back on Fed October Hike Bets After Warsh Remarks
CME Group data show odds of a Fed rate hike at the October 27-28 meeting fell to 15% from 28% a day earlier, the Wall Street Journal reports.
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what happened
Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh revealed little about the central bank's next moves in his latest public appearance. Investors read this as a sign the Fed will not rush to raise rates at its meeting later this month, the Wall Street Journal reports.
According to CME Group data, the chance of a hike at the October 27-28 meeting now stands at 15%, down from 28% the previous day. Odds had jumped after Wednesday's hot inflation print but have since eased. Several Fed officials have recently said they are comfortable waiting before raising rates again, and markets are pricing the next increase for December.
why it matters
Lower odds of a near-term hike suggest markets expect a softer Fed stance in the short run, which supports risk appetite. Still, pricing for a December increase keeps Treasury yields and the dollar sensitive to upcoming inflation data.
market impact
US Treasuries and the dollar: easing expectations of Fed tightening reduces pressure on yields and the currency
tags
instruments
sources
- Investors Trim Bets on Fed October Hike After Warsh Comments — WSJ, 16 October 2026 at 10:03 UTC
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