IMF lifts global growth outlook as AI investment stays strong

what happened

The International Monetary Fund raised its global growth forecast for 2026 to 3.1% from 3.0% in its previous October estimate, Newsmetry API reported. The fund said strong investment in artificial intelligence is offsetting the energy shock, while cautioning that risks to the outlook are increasing.

The IMF left its US growth forecast at 2.3% and lifted the euro area estimate to 1.1% from 0.9%. Germany’s projection rose to 1.3% from 0.7%, Italy’s to 0.8% from 0.5%, and Spain’s to 2.5% from 2.1%. France was cut to 0.4% from 0.6%.

Growth across emerging markets is projected at 3.7% in 2026, with China at 4.5%, India at 7.0% and Russia at 0.9%. Saudi Arabia’s forecast was reduced to -3.3% from 1.7%. For 2027, the IMF sees global growth at 3.4%, US growth at 2.3%, euro area growth at 1.2%, China at 4.0%, India at 7.0% and Russia at 0.9%.

why it matters

The revisions affect expectations for growth in major economies and can shape views on currencies, regional equities and energy demand. The IMF’s warning signals that the outlook remains exposed to adverse shocks despite support from AI-related spending.

instruments