IMF keeps Jordan growth forecast as regional war drags down MENAP outlook
The IMF left Jordan's 2026 and 2027 growth forecasts unchanged while sharply cutting its outlook for the wider MENAP region because of the war.
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what happened
According to Reuters, citing The Jordan Times, the International Monetary Fund's October 2026 regional outlook kept Jordan's growth forecasts at 2.7% for 2026 and 3.1% for 2027, both unchanged from April. The Fund also raised its estimate for Jordan's 2025 growth to 2.8% from 2.7%.
The picture for the wider MENAP region is much weaker. The IMF now expects output across the region, including Gulf oil exporters, to shrink 1.3% in 2026, a downgrade of 2.7 percentage points from its April forecast of 1.4% growth. Oil exporters were hit by disruptions to energy production and shipping, while oil importers such as Jordan have held up better, supported by domestic demand, remittances and tourism.
The IMF warned that further energy disruptions could worsen the outlook, and projects a 6.6% rebound in 2027 only if the conflict eases in early 2027 and trade normalizes.
why it matters
For markets, the signal is that oil importers in the region are absorbing the shock better than exporters. The projected 2027 recovery depends on energy supply and trade returning to normal, so risks for regional energy flows and currencies remain elevated.
market impact
Oil and regional currencies: energy and shipping disruptions hurt exporters, while importers such as Jordan are better placed.
tags
instruments
sources
- ZAWYA: IMF maintains growth forecasts for Jordan despite regional war — Reuters, 23 October 2026 at 04:46 UTC
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