How US Household Costs Are Shaping the Midterm Vote

what happened

According to TradingView, which republished a Wall Street Journal analysis, Americans are judging the economy by their own budgets a month before the midterm vote. A YouGov/Economist poll found nearly half of respondents rate current conditions as poor, while only 20% call them good or excellent.

A typical four-person household on a moderate food budget paid 4.6% more in August than in January 2025, per Bureau of Labor Statistics data. Ground beef climbed to $6.79 a pound from $5.55, while eggs fell from $4.95 to $2.27 a dozen. Overall food prices rose 4.4% over the period.

Diesel has jumped 71% since the start of Trump's second term, to $6.25 a gallon, as the Iran war and the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz pushed fuel costs higher. The average new-car loan reached $44,729 in September, about $3,000 more than in January 2025, while loan terms stretched to 70.5 months.

why it matters

For markets, the data points to sticky inflation and expensive borrowing, which weigh on consumer spending even as the S&P 500 is up 30% since Inauguration Day. Moody's Analytics estimates the Iran war has cost the average household more than $2,000.

market impact

Consumer spending and mortgage lenders: higher rates and prices weigh on household demand

tags

instruments