Economists expect mixed US data this week, from housing starts to PMI and sentiment

what happened

According to Data Week Ahead Update, citing a Wall Street Journal survey, economists expect September housing starts at 1.30 million, against 1.275 million previously. Building permits are seen at 1.39 million, versus 1.394 million. Pending home sales for September are forecast at minus 0.4%, after plus 0.3%.

On Thursday, initial jobless claims for the week ended October 17 are projected at 200,000, compared with 199,000. The leading index for September is seen at minus 0.1%, unchanged from the prior reading. The Kansas City Fed manufacturing composite for October is expected at 12.0, down from 14.

On Friday, S&P Global's flash PMIs for October are due: manufacturing is forecast at 55.3 after 55.9, and services at 58.0 after 58.8. Consumer sentiment is expected at 46.3, matching the October preliminary reading.

why it matters

Data below forecasts on housing or PMI would reinforce concerns about a slowdown in the US economy and could support Treasury prices. Stronger figures would strengthen expectations of tighter Federal Reserve policy and support the dollar. The numbers in parentheses show how many economists were surveyed, so the reliability of each consensus varies.

market impact

USD and US Treasuries: surprises versus consensus in PMI and housing data will shift Fed rate expectations

tags

instruments