Data Suggest the RBA May Have Already Done Enough
Capital Economics says the RBA's 100 basis points of rate hikes this year may be enough, as tighter policy weighs on activity and jobs, according to Market Talk.
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what happened
Market Talk reports that evidence is building that the 100 basis points of official rate increases delivered by the Reserve Bank of Australia this year may be sufficient.
Capital Economics economist Marcel Thieliant argues that the September hike has left policy tighter than the central bank itself had estimated. He says the squeeze is already weighing on activity and the labour market, where unemployment keeps climbing.
In his view, this should be enough to show that policy has been tightened enough. However, inflation must ease noticeably before the hiking cycle truly ends.
why it matters
For the Australian dollar and local bond markets, the view that the tightening cycle may be nearing its end is a key input for assessing the future path of rates. The main open question is how quickly inflation cools, since that will determine whether the RBA can stop.
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- Data Showing RBA Has Done Enough — Market Talk, 16 October 2026 at 03:29 UTC
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