Cocoa Climbs Above $5,600 as West African Supply Risks Grow
Cocoa has risen above $5,600 a tonne as weather risks threaten West Africa’s next harvest, with Ivory Coast and Ghana forecasting lower 2026–27 output.
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what happened
Trading Economics reports that cocoa moved above $5,600 per tonne, almost twice the three-year trough of $2,888 set on February 27. Market concerns are focused on the coming West African crop, while the possibility of a stronger El Niño is adding to supply risks.
Ivory Coast, the leading global producer, could receive less rain than usual through early 2027, according to the country’s weather agency. More than half of worldwide cocoa production comes from West Africa, making global availability especially sensitive to weather disruptions there.
StoneX Group sees Ivory Coast production decreasing 11%, to 1.8 million tonnes, in 2026–27. Ghana, ranked second among producers, anticipates a roughly 13% drop to 650,000 tonnes. Separately, estimates put cocoa deliveries to Ivorian ports at 77,500 tonnes since the 2026/27 season began.
why it matters
Expected output declines in the two major producing countries highlight how exposed future cocoa availability is to West African weather. That makes Cocoa particularly sensitive to changes in crop expectations.
instruments
sources
- Cocoa Rises as West African Crop Risks Intensify — Trading Economics, 12 October 2026 at 11:07 UTC
prepared by the newsmetry newsroom with ai assistance from the sources listed below. not investment advice.
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