CBOT soybeans slip as record US crop meets brisk harvest

what happened

Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures ended lower on Monday as expectations for a record US harvest and rapid fieldwork weighed on the market amid mostly dry conditions across the Midwest. Newsmetry API reports that the US Department of Agriculture lifted its 2026 production estimate in a Friday monthly release to 4.562 billion bushels from 4.535 billion a month earlier. The projected average yield rose to 53.1 bushels per acre from 52.8 bpa. Reuters analysts had forecast 4.534 billion bushels and a 52.8 bpa yield on average.

The USDA will publish its weekly crop progress report on Tuesday, one day later than usual because Monday was a federal holiday. Brazilian soybean planting is advancing at its quickest pace on record and has covered roughly one-fifth of the expected area, consultancy Patria AgroNegocios said on Friday, citing rains that supported field operations.

Market participants are looking for fresh Chinese buying following a recent meeting involving President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping. China’s punitive duty on US soybeans is still in effect, deterring private buyers from arranging American cargoes. On Monday, China’s Agriculture Ministry cut its 2026/27 domestic soybean output forecast by 590,000 metric tons from September’s estimate to 20.36 million tons, saying planted acreage and yields fell short of expectations. Its import projection stayed at 95.5 million tons, compared with the USDA’s 115 million-ton forecast.

November CBOT soybeans (SX26) finished 4-1/4 cents lower at $12.87-3/4 per bushel. December soymeal (SMZ26) gained $3.10 to $368.70 per ton, while December soyoil (BOZ26) rose 0.61 cent to 68.63 cents per pound.

why it matters

US supply expectations and rapid Brazilian planting are weighing on soybeans, while the outlook for Chinese demand remains clouded by the continuing duty on US shipments.

instruments