Bitcoin Trails Gold and Long-Dated Treasuries, Says Bloomberg's McGlone

what happened

According to Stocktwits, Bloomberg Intelligence senior commodity strategist Mike McGlone warned that Bitcoin (BTC) is losing ground to gold and long-dated US Treasuries, and that the decline could spread into risk assets.

In a post on X, he said Bitcoin bought roughly 20 ounces of gold on Saturday and that the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio is more likely to fall toward 15 than rise toward 25. The ratio first hit 20 in early 2021, during pandemic-era stimulus. Since then, he argued, Bitcoin has swung about three times as much as gold while going nowhere. He called this a 'relative dud' and asked whether the cryptocurrency could prove it is not a has-been. A hold above 20 would signal a recovery.

In a second post, McGlone compared the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) with the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), setting both at 100 at the end of 2024. On October 30 the IBIT-to-TLT ratio stood at 81. He linked the weak run to the launch of US spot Bitcoin funds in 2024.

why it matters

The point for markets is that Bitcoin is lagging not only risk assets but also defensive bonds. McGlone said the Bitcoin-to-Nasdaq-100 ratio has tracked equities closely, so a break could also affect stocks. On Saturday BTC traded near $77,300, about 3.4% below the $80,000 level he flagged. Retail sentiment on Stocktwits stayed bearish.

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