Bitcoin stuck between key levels: where resistance and support sit, per Glassnode

what happened

According to analytics platform Glassnode, as reported by RBC, bitcoin is trapped between firm support below and strong resistance above. The macro backdrop came in weaker than expected, yet analysts do not think the short-term pressure changes the long-term outlook. A move above $88K, paired with renewed inflows into bitcoin ETFs, would signal real demand, while a drop toward $80K would open the way to a further level at $78K.

Glassnode ties resistance to the cost basis of two holder groups: those who bought six to twelve months ago, around $88K on average, and those who bought one to two years ago, near $100K. Both lines already capped prices this year. Bitcoin reached the first in January and then lost more than a third, and in May it touched the second before falling roughly a quarter.

Support comes from three lines. Around $81.5K sits a cluster of coins bought through US spot bitcoin ETFs, followed by about $77.5K on the True Market Mean indicator and about $74.6K as the average cost of short-term holders who bought within the last six months. The third line has not yet held as support since the August rally.

Long-term holders have almost stopped selling at a loss, which Glassnode reads as a sign of uncertainty. ETF flows have turned: funds drew in more than $2.6 billion in September but recorded outflows of about $760 million since October 7. Capital inflows may also be held back by the Federal Reserve meeting on October 28, September inflation data that came in worse than forecast, and US midterm elections in early November.

why it matters

Glassnode treats a return of inflows into bitcoin ETFs as the main sign that demand is back, and that signal is not yet visible. Analysts also note that if bitcoin falls toward $80K, altcoins could be the most vulnerable, given the leveraged positions built up in some tokens. This is a map of key levels that market participants are watching, not a price forecast.

tags

instruments