Bitcoin fatigue is real, Lavish says: early holders leave, young investors turn to bets

what happened

James Lavish, who co-manages the Bitcoin Opportunity Fund and sits on the board of Strive Inc. (ASST) as an independent director, tells Stocktwits that interest in Bitcoin has clearly faded. In his account, many early backers have cashed out and no longer take part, while the price has struggled to convincingly break through key levels.

On the What Bitcoin Did podcast on Friday, Lavish said younger investors once hopped between Bitcoin and altcoins, but many now send their funds to forecasting platforms and sports wagering. He pointed to conversations with college students who bet constantly from their phones and feel they cannot get ahead, which leads them toward riskier choices.

At the time of the report, Bitcoin had gained 0.8% over 24 hours and traded near $77,300. Lavish asks why it has not rallied despite rising U.S. debt, inflation close to 4% and higher oil prices, and attributes the lack of momentum to heavy buying of AI stocks, appealing cash yields and call-option selling that pushed market makers to sell Bitcoin as a hedge. He still believes the bottom is in and sees a base case of a peak at $400,000 to $500,000 in early to mid-2029, below his earlier $1 million call for 2030 or 2031.

why it matters

Stocktwits data put retail sentiment around BTC in the bearish zone, with chatter at normal levels over the past day. Views like these from fund managers reflect mood more than hard flow data, but traders often track shifts in retail interest and options positioning when judging Bitcoin demand.

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