Bitcoin: 40x long in loss, Schwab to open direct spot BTC buying

what happened

According to TradingView, an anonymous trader opened a 40x leveraged long on BTC/USD spot CFDs on October 16. The position peaked at $187M and is now worth $110M (1,355.6 BTC), with an unrealized loss of $287K. The stop-out level sits below $80,500.

Bitfinex reports that fresh buyers have accumulated roughly 570,000 BTC since late July, with an average entry close to $75,000, which helped cushion recent lows. Meanwhile spot ETF inflows softened: $82.39M left the funds over 24 hours, pulling total ETF assets down to $104.29B. Charles Schwab plans to let eligible retail clients buy spot bitcoin directly, opening access to its 40 million clients.

Fidelity's Jurrien Timmer argued bitcoin may be entering a new bull market and four-year cycle, based on power-law price patterns, though no clear narrative is currently driving prices. Spot trades about 35% under the $126,000 peak. An analyst notes past cycles produced new highs 8–12 months after bottoms, which would point to around June 2027 if history repeats.

why it matters

Signals are mixed: a heavily leveraged long is close to liquidation, ETF outflows continue, and Bitfinex's accumulation points the other way. Broader retail access via Schwab could add demand over time, though its scale is unclear. Sentiment indicators improved, while Google searches for bitcoin fell to a six-year low.

market impact

Bitcoin and crypto ETFs: fund outflows and leverage liquidation risk weigh on demand

tags

instruments