Bank of America forecasts gold at $4,000 in 4Q26

what happened

Reuters reported that Bank of America expects gold to average $4,000 an ounce during the fourth quarter of 2026. The bank’s forecast for the metal’s average price in 2027 is $4,813 an ounce.

BofA said oil-price risks associated with the Iran war could continue to weigh on gold in the near term. The metal has declined in recent weeks even as exchange-traded fund holdings increased, and the bank said another leg lower could follow if investors begin liquidating positions.

The bank’s tracker indicated that combined gold purchases by central banks, China and India were below year-earlier levels. BofA also described physical-market conditions as soft, citing feedback from the London Bullion Market Association’s conference last week.

In its view, gold is unlikely to establish a lasting floor until inflation worries and risks tied to the Iran war recede, the US dollar ceases to strengthen and the Federal Reserve moves out of its tightening cycle. Spot gold stood at $4,172.39 an ounce at 10:11 a.m. EDT (1412 GMT) on Monday, down 0.5% for the day.

why it matters

The forecast highlights inflation, the dollar, Federal Reserve policy and the Iran war as key variables for gold. Central-bank, Chinese and Indian demand, along with physical-market conditions, are additional market signals.

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