ASML May Lift Guidance for a Third Time as Demand Visibility Improves

what happened

ASML Holding is due to publish third-quarter results on Wednesday. Visible Alpha expects the Dutch semiconductor-equipment maker to report sales of 11.71 billion euros ($13.12 billion), compared with 7.52 billion euros a year earlier. The estimate is within ASML’s own 11 billion-euro-to-12 billion-euro range. Gross profit is projected at 6.56 billion euros, versus 3.88 billion euros a year earlier, while gross margin is seen rising from 51.6% to nearly 56%, within the company’s 55%-to-57% target. Net profit is expected to rise from nearly 2.13 billion euros to 4.17 billion euros.

Dow Jones Newswires reports that ASML’s share price has almost doubled in the past 12 months, supported by investor enthusiasm for artificial intelligence and expectations of sustained demand for chips and chipmaking equipment. ASML remains Europe’s most valuable listed company, ahead of companies including Wegovy maker Novo Nordisk and luxury group LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton.

The company has raised its annual outlook twice this year and currently forecasts 2026 sales of 43 billion euros to 45 billion euros, with gross margin between 54% and 56%. JPMorgan’s Sandeep Deshpande said ASML could modestly increase that guidance, helped by potentially stronger shipments of deep ultraviolet lithography tools. Jefferies analysts expect fourth-quarter sales of about 15 billion euros and gross margin near 57%, which could move the 2026 figures toward the upper ends of the current ranges. They cite increasing machine deliveries to logic customers in China and stronger revenue from software upgrades for equipment already installed at customer sites.

Deshpande said ASML would likely offer an upbeat assessment of demand and its ability to meet it. The company plans to lift output of deep ultraviolet tools and more advanced extreme ultraviolet systems by 30% in 2027 and by another 30% in 2028; UBS analysts believe those targets could be raised above 30%. Chief Financial Officer Roger Dassen referred in July to the possibility of price increases, while UBS expects customer negotiations to support higher prices across both machine lines.

why it matters

The report could shape views on European semiconductor-equipment makers as investors assess ASML’s outlook, Chinese logic-chip demand, pricing power and plans to expand production.

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