Apple Is Winning on Price, Not Units, KeyBanc Survey Suggests

what happened

According to a KeyBanc survey reported by gurufocus.com, early interest in the iPhone 18 is higher than a year ago: almost 20% of respondents have already bought or pre-ordered the new model, against 17% for the iPhone 17 a year earlier. Analysts, however, expect demand may slow once enthusiasts are satisfied. Only 41% said they would be inclined to upgrade the following year, down from 48% in the previous study, and price concerns remain a major issue.

A partial offset could come from buyers shifting to higher-priced Pro models, which might lift average selling prices even if unit growth slows. Only 33% said AI features would motivate an upgrade, down from 42%, and 65% said they would not pay a monthly charge for AI features. KeyBanc, while maintaining its Underweight rating, called Apple's price of around 40 times 2027 profits excessive.

why it matters

The key question for investors is whether a shift toward higher-end models can make up for fewer upgrades. That matters for AAPL, since expected revenue growth is already reflected in its valuation. The view rests on one bank's survey, so it does not give a full picture, and the stock's next move will depend on the company's reported results.

market impact

Apple (AAPL): weaker upgrade demand offset by Pro mix, so pressure centers on unit growth versus pricing

tags

instruments