Anthropic could be worth $4 trillion or nothing, Damodaran says

what happened

According to valuation expert Aswath Damodaran, as reported by TradingView, Anthropic's equity could fall to minus $373 billion in his worst case and reach $4.04 trillion in his best. His base case lands at about $1.475 trillion, just below the $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion range discussed for the listing.

In the 416-page prospectus filed on October 26, revenue in the first half of 2026 was roughly 14 times the year-ago level, though growth slowed in the third quarter. The headline first-half loss of $80 billion was mostly a non-cash charge tied to a convertible bond; without it, the operating loss was above $8 billion.

Damodaran also sharply criticises governance, calling the voting share design so self-serving that it would embarrass Kim Jong Un.

why it matters

The final valuation depends on assumptions about market size, margins, reinvestment and risk, so for the AI sector this is more a reason to compare models than a ready benchmark. Damodaran urges investors to build their own estimates.

market impact

AI sector and IPO market: the disputed Anthropic valuation adds uncertainty around the listing

tags

instruments