Analysts expect oil to rise next week as supply risks outweigh relief steps
Moody's analysts see another volatile week for crude as West Asian supply worries and stalled US-Iran talks keep markets on edge, despite relief efforts.
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what happened
According to analysts cited by Moody's, crude is likely to stay under pressure next week because of threats to supply from West Asia. US-Iran negotiations have stalled, and the Hormuz waterway remains the main source of uncertainty, since any disruption there could further squeeze global supply.
Over the past week, December Brent futures gained 5.14 dollars, close to 5 percent, to settle at 109.86 dollars a barrel. WTI climbed 8.01 dollars, nearly 9 percent, to 99.02 dollars. On India's Multi Commodity Exchange, the November contract rose 6.4 percent to 9,394 rupees a barrel.
Measures meant to ease shortages, including G7 stock releases, a US-Russia diesel agreement and plans to loosen sanctions on Moscow's shadow tanker fleet, have not produced a lasting price decline. The IEA warns that diesel tightness may persist, and both the IEA and the US Energy Information Administration expect supply to recover only in 2027.
why it matters
Religare Broking's Ajit Mishra says physical supply constraints, rather than political statements, now drive the market. If geopolitical risks escalate, he sees Brent possibly reaching 115 to 120 dollars a barrel. A draw of 8 million barrels in US crude inventories is already supporting prices. Strikes on Russian energy infrastructure could add further pressure, since the executive order signed by Donald Trump only temporarily eased restrictions for major buyers of Russian oil.
market impact
Brent and WTI: risks of disruption in the Strait of Hormuz support prices and lift the geopolitical risk premium
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- Crude oil likely to gain further next week as supply fears overshadow relief measures: Analysts — Moody's, 18 October 2026 at 11:50 UTC
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