Analysts expect Boeing to post small Q3 loss despite recent contract wins

what happened

Wall Street analysts expect Boeing to report a loss of 21 cents per share for the third quarter when results come out on Tuesday, according to LSEG data cited by Reuters. The forecast comes despite a run of wins: the company landed the US Navy's F/A-XX sixth-generation fighter contract and gained certification for the final pair of 737 MAX versions. Deliveries reached 363 737 MAX jets in the first nine months of 2026, the fastest pace on record.

Shares were still off 17.3% this year at Monday's open. BNP Paribas analyst Matt Akers said investors prioritize cash generation, which hinges chiefly on delivery volumes, while spending on the 777-9 certification and new defense facilities weighs on it. Consensus estimates also point to $330.5 million in third-quarter free cash flow, $2.3 billion for the full year, $905 million in capex, a net loss of $153 million versus almost $6 billion a year earlier, and net debt of $25.4 billion, down from $30.4 billion.

Production remains a challenge. Boeing is trying to hold 737 output at 47 jets a month, and lifting 787 output from eight to 10 a month has proven difficult. Akers added that the recent wins were already priced in and had little effect on the stock.

why it matters

For Boeing, the market is focused on cash flow and delivery pace rather than contract headlines, since those wins were largely priced in. Net debt is expected to fall to $25.4 billion from $30.4 billion a year earlier, while the projected loss is far smaller than last year's near $6 billion.

market impact

BA: quarterly loss and cash flow outlook drive the stock and aerospace sentiment

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