Amundi sees Iran war ending as possible turning point for India

what happened

The research arm of Amundi SA believes Indian equities could recover after a sharp sell-off during the year left the market among the world’s worst performers in 2026. CNBC TV18 reports that Amundi Investment Institute sees the end of the Iran war as a possible turning point for India, which relies heavily on crude imports.

Alessia Berardi, Amundi’s head of global macroeconomics and emerging-markets strategy, said in an interview with Bloomberg that Indian markets had lagged this year because of higher oil prices and persistent foreign outflows. Amundi’s combined exposure to India’s capital markets is close to $57 billion, including its joint venture with ASBI Funds Management and direct holdings in Indian-listed companies.

Berardi said she was positive about a possible turnaround, pointing to stronger private investment and other economic data. The Nifty 50 is down 15% so far this year, pressured by outflows of more than $30 billion, higher oil prices and a currency that has fallen to record lows. She described the West Asia conflict as a “tipping point” for many global investors, saying the surge in crude prices raised inflation and prompted the Reserve Bank of India to increase interest rates for the first time in three years.

Among her preferred areas, Berardi identified India’s defence and manufacturing sectors. The Nifty India defence index has outperformed the benchmark this year, gaining 16%. After growth of 7.8% in the first quarter of the current financial year, the RBI lifted its full-year growth forecast to 7.1% from 6.7%. “I’m seeing the seeds of a good economic performance,” Berardi told Bloomberg.

why it matters

An end to the conflict could ease one source of pressure on India: elevated prices for imported crude. Foreign outflows, currency weakness and RBI policy decisions remain key factors for Indian equities.

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